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📈 Crypto Surge: Tariffs Tamed, ETFs Evolve

Author

Dr. P
April 10, 2025

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📈 Crypto Surge: Tariffs Tamed, ETFs Evolve

Well, that was a day. Thursday brought a jolt to the system, didn't it? One minute, markets are bracing for impact, the next, they're rocketing higher like someone flipped an anti-gravity switch. The cause? An unexpected 90-day pause on tariffs for most countries announced by the Trump administration, even while cranking them up on China. It sent stocks soaring on relief, and crypto wasn't about to miss that party.

It’s the kind of policy whiplash that gives traders grey hairs, or perhaps just makes them reach for a stronger coffee. The surge was historic for stocks, but the underlying currents are complex. We saw Bitcoin surge towards $82k before settling slightly, alongside broad gains in altcoins. Yet, beneath the surface, questions about insider trading, market stability, and the actual long-term economic impact linger like cigar smoke in a closed room. It's a reminder that in this space, political winds can shift market tides dramatically, often without much warning.

Today, we’ll cut through the noise of soaring numbers and political theatre. We'll look at the real drivers, from surprising policy shifts and institutional milestones to the growing pains of decentralized finance (DeFi) and the ever-present pulse of the broader economy. Before we dive deep into the forces shaping today's market, let's quickly glance at where things stand.

🔍 Quick Overview

  • Tariff Tango: Trump pauses tariffs for most, cranks them up on China – a market two-step that sent stocks soaring like a SpaceX launch.

  • Ethereum ETF Options Approved: SEC gives BlackRock and Fidelity the green light for ETH ETF options – Wall Street dives deeper into the crypto pool.

  • Saylor's Stance: MicroStrategy's Saylor doubles down on Bitcoin HODLing, even as a $700M transaction stirs the pot – conviction is a heck of a drug.

  • sUSD Stablecoin Slip: Synthetix's sUSD stablecoin wobbles off its peg, leaving users feeling less than stable – confidence depegged right along with it.

  • Ronin's Permissionless Pivot: Ronin opens the floodgates for smart contracts, but gaming activity remains stubbornly earthbound – build it, and they might come.

XRP took the lead with a 5.3% jump, while Bitcoin, BNB, and Solana followed with steady gains—no fireworks, but enough to keep spirits up. Ethereum dipped ever so slightly, like someone tripping on the last step of a staircase. Overall, the market feels cautiously upbeat, with a dash of swagger.

MicroStrategy plans to sell $21 billion in new shares to buy more Bitcoin, causing its stock to rise despite a Bitcoin price dip. Investors accept the dilution, believing the Bitcoin purchases will increase shareholder value. This move solidifies MicroStrategy's position as a Bitcoin accumulator and could further drive institutional interest in Bitcoin.

Consensys, the company behind MetaMask, is cutting 20% of its staff due to economic headwinds and regulatory actions by the SEC. CEO Joe Lubin has criticized the SEC's actions as an "abuse of power," citing the financial costs of regulatory battles.

Bitcoin is experiencing a bullish trend driven by significant inflows into U.S. Bitcoin ETFs, with nearly $900 million flowing in on both Tuesday and Wednesday. Institutional interest is growing, contributing to Bitcoin's increasing dominance in the crypto market.

The 2024 election is seeing the rise of "crypto voters" as a significant voting bloc, with a Digital Chamber poll indicating 16% of likely voters identify as part of this group. Stand With Crypto (SWC) is actively engaging voters and has registered over 500,000.

Tether reported $2.5 billion in Q3 profits, holding over $100 billion in U.S. Treasuries, while also facing a U.S. criminal investigation for potential sanctions violations. USDT's market capitalization is nearing $120 billion, making it the third-largest cryptocurrency.

Beyond the Noise

The biggest headline was undoubtedly the Trump administration's tariff pause. While tariffs on China were hiked to a staggering 125%, the temporary relief for others sparked a massive rally. The S&P 500 had its best day since 2008, the Nasdaq its second-best ever. This wasn't just a small bump; it was a full-on stampede, fueled by relief from feared economic headwinds. However, the timing of a bullish social media post before the announcement raised eyebrows and prompted calls for an insider trading investigation, adding a layer of unease to the celebration. It highlights the delicate line leaders walk regarding market-moving statements.

Crypto markets certainly felt the updraft. Bitcoin (BTC) climbed significantly, trading around $79,111.00 (a 1.7% gain) in the last 24 hours, having touched $82k earlier. It wasn't alone; other major cryptocurrencies caught the wave. Ripple (XRP) jumped a notable 5.0% to $1.94, while BNB (BNB) added 1.0% to reach $570.20, and Solana (SOL) rose 2.0% to $109.33. Even coins like Cardano and Dogecoin saw gains up to 10%. This broad rally suggests a return of risk appetite, at least for now, spurred by the unexpected policy shift.

Beyond the immediate market froth, a significant structural development occurred: the SEC approved Ethereum ETF options trading for giants BlackRock and Fidelity. This is a big deal. It opens the door for more sophisticated institutional strategies and participation in the Ethereum market, signaling growing regulatory comfort and mainstream acceptance. While Ethereum (ETH) itself saw a modest 0.2% rise to $1,500.63, the long-term implications are substantial. This follows positive signs like the XRP ETF hitting $5.4M in volume on its first trading day, suggesting growing investor interest in regulated crypto products.

But it’s not all smooth sailing in the digital asset world. The Synthetix ecosystem faced turmoil as its native stablecoin, sUSD, dramatically lost its peg, dipping below $0.90 and hitting lows near $0.83. The culprit seems to be a recent upgrade (the "420 pool") that, while aiming for capital efficiency, removed key incentives keeping the peg stable. Community trust is fraying, with users frustrated by skewed liquidity pools and what they see as inadequate responses. It’s a stark reminder that stablecoin mechanics are complex and trust, once lost, is hard to regain. This contrasts sharply with the broader optimism surrounding stablecoins, seen by many as crucial for US dollar dominance and global payments, with legislation potentially on the horizon.

Looking at specific blockchain ecosystems, we see a mixed bag. Ronin, the gaming-focused L1, became permissionless, allowing any developer to deploy contracts. This led to a surge in contract deployments, but curiously, daily active user addresses haven't followed suit yet. Is it a slow burn, or a sign that building doesn't automatically equal usage? Meanwhile, Solana showed resilience in app revenue despite a drop in overall network revenue. Developments like the 'Confidential Balances' upgrade showcase ongoing innovation, though competition is heating up, with platforms like Base attracting significant inflows.

Zooming out to the macro picture, there's genuinely good news on the inflation front. The March CPI report showed inflation continuing to fall, with core CPI dropping below 3.0% for the first time since March 2021. Even "supercore" metrics declined. This fuels hope that the Federal Reserve might consider cutting interest rates sooner rather than later. Lower rates generally boost risk assets like crypto, so this trend is a welcome tailwind after years of inflationary pressure impacting consumers.

Finally, amidst the daily volatility, long-term conviction remains strong in some corners. MicroStrategy's Michael Saylor publicly reiterated his 'HODL' commitment, stating the company won't sell its massive Bitcoin stash despite market swings and speculation around recent large transactions. This reinforces the narrative of Bitcoin as a long-term store of value. On a practical note, the growing value of crypto holdings is pushing Bitcoin estate planning into the spotlight. Strategies like direct gifting, funding irrevocable trusts, and even Bitcoin-denominated life insurance are becoming crucial considerations for investors looking to manage their digital wealth and tax exposure effectively.

This Caught My Eye:

  • After a massive +10% rally yesterday, the market is now down nearly 6%, putting it dangerously close to triggering Level 1 circuit breakers (set at a 7% drop to 5074.91), which would temporarily halt trading.

  • Circuit breakers serve as market "shock absorbers"—they’re triggered at -7%, -13%, and -20% declines to prevent panic-selling spirals. With $SPY near -6%, we’re teetering on the edge of Level 1. The question now: do we bounce… or break?

Looking Ahead

So, as Thursday draws towards a close, what’s the takeaway? We saw a stark example of how geopolitical decisions can instantly reprice markets, sending both stocks and crypto on a tear. It’s a reminder of the unpredictable variable that is government policy, now further complicated by the Trump administration's explicitly pro-crypto stance and initiatives like a dedicated White House office and a potential Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

At the same time, the plumbing of the crypto world continues to evolve. Ethereum ETF options mark another step towards institutional integration, making digital assets more accessible and palatable for big players. Yet, the sUSD depeg highlights the fragility that can still exist within DeFi protocols, reminding us that innovation often comes with bumps in the road. Ecosystems like Solana and Ronin keep building, but translating development into sustained user growth remains the key challenge.

Looking ahead towards the weekend and beyond, the market seems caught between the sugar rush of the tariff pause and lingering questions. Will this rally hold? The tariff pause is just that – a pause – negotiations and uncertainty remain. Inflation data is encouraging, but Fed action is never guaranteed. And while institutional doors keep opening, retail sentiment can be fickle. It feels like a market buoyed by recent good news but still wary of underlying currents. The coming days will likely test whether this newfound optimism has legs or if it was just a fleeting reaction to a surprising headline. Keep a clear head out there.


- Dr.P