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⚖️🔥 BTC Rally: Hackers vs. $7B Bets

Hello there you embodiment of curiosity;

Welcome to today's edition of Osiris News. The market is pushing higher, but nobody seems to believe it. Bitcoin is grinding into the low $90k range on weak spot volume, a classic sign of a liquidity-driven drift, not a conviction rally. The move feels fragile, propped up entirely by the promise of cheaper money from the Fed.

Meanwhile, the crypto-native world delivered a perfect snapshot of its own contradiction. South Korea’s largest exchange, Upbit, was hit by a $36 million hack attributed to North Korea's Lazarus Group. Almost simultaneously, Upbit's parent company was acquired by tech giant Naver in a deal that includes a $7 billion pledge to build the future of finance on-chain. This is the market in a nutshell: building a skyscraper while the foundation is still on fire.

🔍 Quick Overview

• Bitcoin's Rally: The bounce to $92k happened on low volume, showing a lack of speculative conviction. Institutions now hold a record 17% of supply, apparently unbothered by the short-term risk.

• December Seasonality: Data shows December is a non-negotiable month for BTC HODLers, with an average win of +31%. The same data suggests it's a seasonal graveyard for LINK, where skipping the month historically improves returns.

• Upbit Hack: North Korea's Lazarus Group is the prime suspect in the $36M hack of Upbit. The attack exploited a rare wallet flaw, prompting a formal regulatory review of the exchange's systems.

• UK DeFi Tax: The UK's tax authority proposed a "no gain, no loss" framework for DeFi lending and liquidity pools. This means no taxable event until you actually sell, a rare moment of regulatory clarity.

• South Korean Tech: Tech giant Naver is acquiring Upbit's operator and planning a joint $7B investment into AI and blockchain infrastructure. The plan includes a Korean won-pegged stablecoin, signaling a serious long-term bet.

Trending News

💸📈 Government Liquidity Surge Drives Bitcoin Past $90K

Bitcoin surged past $90,000 after the conclusion of the government shutdown released $621 billion in liquidity back into the banking system. This cash flow, combined with dovish Fed signals, boosted risk assets like crypto and ended Quantitative Tightening headwinds. Institutional data shows Ethereum products led inflows, confirming the rally is built on low leverage.

💻🧊 Lazarus Group Exploits Upbit Wallet Flaw

South Korea’s Upbit exchange suffered a $30.4 million theft of Solana assets, attributed to the North Korean Lazarus Group. Investigators found a software bug that created weak digital signatures, potentially allowing attackers to reconstruct private keys from public data. Upbit has guaranteed customer losses and fixed the critical vulnerability.

🔮💰 Prediction Markets Surge on Regulatory Clarity

The prediction market sector is now valued at $26 billion, driven by massive investment following regulatory clarity from the CFTC. Kalshi raised $1 billion, reaching an $11 billion valuation, while rival Polymarket seeks up to $15 billion. Investors are betting on a duopoly dominating this rapidly expanding financial arena.

🔌🏦 Nasdaq Seeks To Quadruple Bitcoin ETF Options Limit

Nasdaq formally requested the SEC raise the options contract limit for the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) from 250,000 to one million. This technical change is necessary to allow major institutions to use standard hedging strategies at scale. The move aims to fully integrate Bitcoin derivatives into the global financial grid.

This tiny pause brought to you by “please let this help pay the bills” 👀

Beyond the Noise

The entire price structure is a tug-of-war between macro tailwinds and crypto-native headwinds. On the macro side, the story is simple: liquidity is returning. ARK Invest notes that $70 billion has already re-entered the market since the US government shutdown ended, with another $300 billion expected as the Treasury normalizes its accounts. This, combined with a near-certain Fed pivot to rate cuts, is forcing capital into risk assets. Bitcoin is just floating up with the tide.

But the rally has a ceiling because the crypto industry keeps providing reasons for caution. The price is currently stalled directly below the $92k–$95k resistance zone. According to Glassnode, this is a heavy supply wall where roughly 500,000 BTC was acquired on the way up. Those holders are now looking for an exit, creating significant sell pressure. The weak on-chain transfer volume, down about 20% week-over-week, shows that new speculative capital isn't rushing in to absorb that supply.

The Upbit hack is a major reason why. This wasn't just a simple hot wallet exploit. The attack is being attributed to the Lazarus Group, and security analysts have flagged a potentially severe wallet vulnerability that may have allowed attackers to infer private keys from transaction data. That’s a fundamental security failure, and it's the kind of headline that keeps institutional risk managers awake at night. The downstream effect is already visible: Japan's FSA is now considering mandating that exchanges hold liability reserves to cover losses from hacks. The risk is being priced in, both by regulators and by the market.

This is the core conflict. While state-sponsored hackers are draining exchanges, the largest corporations are placing massive long-term bets on the same infrastructure. The Naver-Dunamu merger and their joint $7 billion investment plan is a signal of deep conviction in a future where AI and blockchain merge to create new financial rails. They are explicitly planning to build a Korean won-pegged stablecoin, entering the race to digitize sovereign currency. DWF Labs is making a similar bet, launching a $75 million fund to back institutional-grade DeFi. The fund is targeting dark-pool DEXs and decentralized money markets—the exact infrastructure needed to onboard large, risk-averse capital.

The regulatory environment is just as fractured. While Japan is reacting to the Upbit hack with potentially restrictive rules, the UK's tax authority proposed a "no gain, no loss" framework for DeFi lending and liquidity provision. This is a genuinely productive piece of regulation that acknowledges the economic reality of DeFi and removes a major tax headache for users. It shows that some jurisdictions are choosing to compete on regulatory clarity rather than punishment. The future isn't one set of global crypto rules; it's a patchwork of competing financial zones.

This Caught My Eye:

Here’s a breakdown of the chart:

• Binance’s stablecoin reserves climbing to record highs (~$51B) while competitors stay flat shows that real buying power is consolidating on a single exchange even as the broader market cools.

• The exchange maintaining dominant spot and futures volume during a correction signals that traders still view Binance as the primary liquidity venue, a strong vote of confidence in a risk-off environment.

Looking Ahead

The bigger picture remains entirely dependent on US macro data. The entire rally is built on the assumption of a dovish Fed. That assumption will be tested repeatedly in December, starting with the ISM Manufacturing PMI on Monday. The main event is the CPI inflation data and the Fed's interest rate decision, both on December 10. A hot inflation print would invalidate the rate-cut narrative and could kill this low-conviction rally instantly.

Seasonality data suggests December is a volatile month for Bitcoin, with a history of asymmetric upside. The average gain in winning months (+31.5%) is nearly triple the average loss (-12.4%). For traders, this means sitting on the sidelines can be just as risky as being long. The market is coiled between a bullish macro setup and a chaotic industry, heading into a historically explosive month.

Until Monday,
- Dr.P