🏦⚠️ BTC / ETH Adoption: JPM Launches $100M On Mainnet

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Hello there you embodiment of curiosity;

Welcome to today's edition of Osiris News. The market is currently suffering from a severe case of cognitive dissonance. While Bitcoin price action chops between $85,000 and $90,000, flushing out over-leveraged traders on both sides, the infrastructure layer is shipping at a frantic pace. Sentiment has hit "Extreme Fear" (17), driven by anxiety over a potential Bank of Japan rate hike and the unwinding of the Yen carry trade. Yet, under the hood, the largest players in finance are finalizing their move on-chain. It’s a classic "price down, adoption up" environment where patience is the only edge left.

🔍 Quick Overview

• Market Mood: Sentiment hits "Extreme Fear" while institutions build. A classic price vs. fundamentals divergence.

• Coinbase: Adding Solana DEXs and equities. An "everything app" play to front-run on-chain migration.

• JPMorgan: Deployed a $100M money market fund on Ethereum. The private blockchain thesis is dead.

• Bank Custody: Regulators remove safe harbor. Banks can now claim your keys without actually holding them.

• On-Chain: Vintage wallets are selling, capping the price. The "Great Unclenching" is the main headwind.

Beyond the Noise

Coinbase is tired of staying in its lane. The exchange announced a massive expansion into equities, prediction markets via Kalshi, and native Solana DEX trading routed through Jupiter. This isn't just adding features; it's a direct attack on Robinhood and a consolidation of TradFi, DeFi, and gambling under one compliant roof. By integrating Jupiter, they are acknowledging that on-chain liquidity is superior to their own order books for certain assets. They also selected Chainlink’s CCIP as the exclusive bridge infrastructure for all Coinbase Wrapped Assets, securing roughly $7 billion in value. This move signals a shift from a pure exchange model to an "everything app" strategy, attempting to capture users before they migrate on-chain entirely.

While Coinbase aggregates, Hyperliquid is fighting an identity crisis. The Hyper Foundation proposed "burning" its Assistance Fund, effectively removing $1 billion worth of HYPE from the supply. The market shrugged, sending the token down 15%, because traders had already priced that supply as non-circulating. The real issue is structural: Hyperliquid clears Nasdaq-level volume ($205B/month) but captures wholesale-level fees (~3.9 bps). They are trapped in the thin-margin market layer while permissionless frontends capture the fat broker margins. This burn is a sentiment play, but it doesn't solve the revenue compression caused by their own open architecture.

The "private blockchain" thesis finally died this week. JPMorgan’s asset management arm launched "MONY," a tokenized money market fund, directly on the Ethereum mainnet with $100 million in seed capital. They aren't using a private fork like Quorum anymore; they are deploying on public rails for 24/7 liquidity. This signals that the largest financial institutions have accepted public blockchains as the inevitable settlement layer. Visa followed suit with a stablecoin advisory service, confirming that banks are done building walled gardens and are now figuring out how to survive in the open field.

However, this institutional arrival comes with a catch. Regulators quietly removed "safe harbor" requirements for asset custody, allowing banks like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs to claim control of private keys through paperwork rather than physical possession. This reintroduces counterparty risk, where the bank's ledger supersedes the blockchain as the source of truth for ownership. Simultaneously, the bipartisan SAFE Crypto Act was introduced to create a federal task force for crypto fraud. The message is clear: the government is widening the doors for banks to enter, but they are ensuring the surveillance state walks in with them.

Despite the institutional green lights, spot price is being suppressed by "vintage whales", wallets holding for 1-5 years, who have distributed nearly $3 billion into this rally. This "Great Unclenching" is capping every bounce. However, technical indicators suggest a coil is forming; historical RSI patterns indicate that once this distribution phase ends, a violent move upward often follows. The market is currently pricing in the liquidity drain from a potential Yen carry trade unwind, ignoring the structural demand building at $85,000.

This Caught My Eye:

Here’s a breakdown:

• Short-term holders now anchor their “fair value” around $101K, while spot trades below it, which keeps recent buyers underwater and sentiment fragile.

• In past cycles, moves back above the STH cost basis have marked the shift from fear to recovery, making this band the key level to watch for a structurally bullish reset.

Looking Ahead

The immediate price action hinges on the US CPI data releasing today, December 18. A hot print will exacerbate fears of a liquidity crunch, potentially strengthening the case for a BOJ rate hike and flushing Bitcoin toward the $70,000 "reset" level analysts are eyeing. Conversely, a soft print gives the market breathing room before holiday volumes vanish. Traders should also mark December 23 for US GDP data, but right now, the primary driver is the sell wall from vintage whales. Until that supply is absorbed, upside remains capped regardless of how much code Coinbase ships.

Until tomorrow,
- Dr.P